Grocery Retail
Demand Forecasting

Albertsons

Predicting demand for products that expire in days—reducing $180M in annual food waste while keeping shelves stocked with the freshest products.

-45%

Perishable Waste

97.2%

In-Stock Rate

$83M

Annual Savings

Fresh Demand Forecast

Live
Heat wave forecast (3 days)
+127% watermelon
Strawberry supply constraint
-40% availability
Adjusted order recommendation
Optimized
The Challenge

Products That Expire in Days

Fresh produce and perishables represent 30% of grocery revenue but 60% of waste costs. Traditional forecasting models built for shelf-stable goods fail when applied to items with 3-7 day shelf lives. Albertsons was losing $180M annually to spoilage—while simultaneously running out of popular items.

3-7 days

Shelf life window

$180M

Annual shrink

67%

Manager overrides

Demand Intelligence

Multi-Signal Forecasting

Fresh demand isn't just about last year's numbers. Weather, events, and supply constraints all drive daily demand.

Weather Forecast
Heat wave doubles watermelon sales
High Impact
Local Events
Super Bowl parties spike chip demand 340%
High Impact
School Schedules
Back-to-school week shifts lunch item demand
Medium Impact
Store Demographics
Urban vs. suburban preference patterns
Medium Impact
Supply Availability
Strawberry shortage requires reforecast
High Impact
Waste Reduction

Shrink Reduction by Category

Produce

$82M$41M
-50%

Dairy

$34M$19M
-44%

Bakery

$28M$15M
-46%

Meat/Seafood

$36M$22M
-39%

$83M

Total Annual Savings

"Store managers used to override our forecasts 67% of the time because they didn't trust the numbers. Now? Override rate is under 15%. The AI factors in things they couldn't—like a concert three miles away or a cold snap coming next Tuesday. They've learned to trust it."
RG

Robert Garcia

VP of Supply Chain Analytics, Albertsons

Optimizing Perishable Supply Chains?

We help retailers build demand forecasting systems that reduce waste while keeping shelves stocked with fresh products.

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