Predicting demand for products that expire in days—reducing $180M in annual food waste while keeping shelves stocked with the freshest products.
-45%
Perishable Waste
97.2%
In-Stock Rate
$83M
Annual Savings
Fresh Demand Forecast
The Challenge: Albertsons managed perishable inventory across hundreds of stores—products that expire in days, not weeks. Demand swings driven by weather, local events, and promotions were nearly impossible to anticipate with traditional forecasting tools, resulting in an estimated $180M in annual waste from unsold and expired goods while popular items still ran out of stock.
The Solution: AGIX deployed a machine learning demand forecasting system that analyzed historical sales data, local demographics, seasonal patterns, weather forecasts, and promotional calendars in real time. The AI generated daily replenishment recommendations for over 50,000 SKUs per store, replacing manual ordering with exception-based management that only escalated outliers to human review.
The Impact: Perishable waste dropped 23%, translating to over $41M in annual savings. On-shelf availability improved 18%, directly increasing customer satisfaction and basket size. Store managers shifted from reactive ordering to strategic merchandising, and the system's accuracy continued improving as it accumulated more store-level behavioral data.
Fresh produce and perishables represent 30% of grocery revenue but 60% of waste costs. Traditional forecasting models built for shelf-stable goods fail when applied to items with 3-7 day shelf lives. Albertsons was losing $180M annually to spoilage—while simultaneously running out of popular items.
3-7 days
Shelf life window
$180M
Annual shrink
67%
Manager overrides
Fresh demand isn't just about last year's numbers. Weather, events, and supply constraints all drive daily demand.
Produce
Dairy
Bakery
Meat/Seafood
$83M
Total Annual Savings
"Store managers used to override our forecasts 67% of the time because they didn't trust the numbers. Now? Override rate is under 15%. The AI factors in things they couldn't—like a concert three miles away or a cold snap coming next Tuesday. They've learned to trust it."
Robert Garcia
VP of Supply Chain Analytics, Albertsons
We help retailers build demand forecasting systems that reduce waste while keeping shelves stocked with fresh products.
Talk to our AI systems architects about your specific challenges. Get a personalized roadmap for implementation.